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From coal to renewables in Mpumalanga

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Employ­ment effects, oppor­tu­ni­ties for local val­ue cre­ation, skills require­ments, and gen­der-inclu­sive­ness. Assess­ing the co-benefits of decar­bon­is­ing South Africa’s pow­er sector 

Coal has con­tributed to the South African econ­o­my for more than a cen­tu­ry and remains a dom­i­nant part of the ener­gy mix. Mpumalan­ga is the cen­tre of the South African coal indus­try, account­ing for approx­i­mate­ly 80 % of total coal pro­duc­tion. Most of Eskom’s coal-fired plants are also locat­ed in the province. Con­se­quent­ly, Mpumalanga’s region­al econ­o­my is high­ly depen­dent on the exploita­tion of coal.

How­ev­er, the trans­for­ma­tion of the South African ener­gy sys­tem is gath­er­ing momen­tum. The Inte­grat­ed Resource Plan (IRP) 2019 antic­i­pates that 10.7 GW of exist­ing coal-fired pow­er sta­tions will be decom­mis­sioned by 2030, with only Medupi and Kusile expect­ed to remain oper­a­tional by 2040. Accord­ing to the DFFE, about 80 – 90% of green­house gas emis­sion reduc­tions in South Africa should come from the pow­er sec­tor, as it is both the largest emit­ter and the cheap­est sec­tor to mit­i­gate in due to declin­ing renew­able ener­gy prices.

With­out delib­er­ate and appro­pri­ate plan­ning, the grad­ual phase-out of coal would be expect­ed to lead to sub­stan­tial eco­nom­ic and socio-eco­nom­ic loss­es. A region­al and nation­al plan is there­fore need­ed to ensure that this process meets the prin­ci­ples of a Just Tran­si­tion, which include social inclu­sion, decent work for all, and pover­ty reduction.

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Jan­u­ary 2022

Edi­tors: David Jacobs, Sebas­t­ian Hel­gen­berg­er, Lau­ra Nagel – IET and IASS

Tech­ni­cal imple­men­ta­tion: Xolile Msi­man­ga, Ruan Fourie (alum­ni), Bri­an Day, Dineo Maila, Mike Lev­ing­ton, Abram Mare­ma, Boi­tume­lo Tloko­lo – Coun­cil for Sci­en­tific and Indus­tri­al Research (CSIR), Ener­trag, Prime Africa, and Nav­i­tas Energy

Sug­gest­ed cita­tion: IASS/IET/CSIR. 2022. From coal to renew­ables in Mpumalan­ga: Employ­ment effects, oppor­tu­ni­ties for local val­ue cre­ation, skills require­ments, and gen­der-inclu­sive­ness. Assess­ing the co-benefits of decar­bon­is­ing South Africa’s pow­er sec­tor. COBENEFITS Exec­u­tive Report. Potsdam/Pretoria. www.cobenefits.info

This Exec­u­tive Report is accom­pa­nied by a Tech­ni­cal Report with more back­ground information,
mod­el­ling assump­tions, and oth­er data – avail­able soon

 

Relat­ed infographics: